The SBY’s coaliton and Collision

The SBY’s coaliton and Collision
oleh : Ali Syarief

Politicians and observers apparently are talking about something this weekend: Is the cabinet reshuffle

proposal from the Democratic Party a bluff or a real threat? Earlier on Thursday, three Democratic Party executives, Amir Syamsuddin, Anas Urbaningrum and Jafar Hafsah, met with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, proposing the latter to replace ministers from disloyal coalition partners, which the three said had refused to defend the government in the investigation of the Bank Century bailout case.

The parties are the Golkar Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Awakening Party (PKB). The ministers from coalition parties include Communications and Information Technology Minister Tifatul Sembiring (PKS), Religious Affairs Minister Suryadharma Ali (PPP), Agriculture Minister Suswono (PKS), Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Fadel Muhammad (Golkar), Manpower and Transmigration Minister Muhaimin Iskandar (PKB).

But presidential spokesman Julian Aldrin Pasha said the President had not given a response to the proposal.

I am interested to discuss it as I have written several notes previously and why the case happened as from the beginning SBY did not understand his position. SBY was ellected directly by the people. This is what then so called a presidential system. The people have given totally mandate on to his hand. But what SBY did when he started to proceed his presidency? He first invited allien parties as called “pre-coalition parties” to support his presidency while his Party had got almost more than enough 25% chairs in the house for his president requirement. That was why he took Boediono as his vice president who came from non party candidate.

What was the reason that SBY – Boediono were ellected, Wimar witoelar said that there were a number of reason why somebody gets elected. I will take an educated guess. I think the first and for most reason is that people tend to choose the incumbent, unless there’s something wrong with the incumbent. Not just in Indonesia, but anywhere else. And in Indonesia that syndrome is even stronger. People want to stick with the familiar because, why should they risk a new one if the incumbent did not do very badly? Of course there are many things wrong with Indonesia, and of course there’s a need for change. But first of all people need strong intellect to appreciate the need for change, and change needs an agent who can give a convincing case. So if Megawati gives a message of change that is not very credible since she is part of the old system. She was a president once, and she did not get re-elected. If people want change why should she go to a vice presidential candidate like Prabowo, because Indonesia was damages very greatly by General Prabowo when he was special forces commander under Soeharto. If we look at Jusuf Kalla, he can not promise change. People forget he is a member of the Soeharto elite. As a businessman he enjoyed the patronage of the Soeharto system. He was given Eastern Indonesia monopolies, and he was oppressive against the Chinese.

Wiranto of course headed the Armed Forces under Soeharto. People who remember East Timor or the

violence in Jakarta know he doesn’t represent change. Both candidates represent a return to the past, back to the past.

SBY-Boediono is the only pair who had some credibility, Because at least 5 years of SBY’s presidency didn’t create damage, in fact the economic growth at the average of 4%-5%, no violence. Some people don’t like him, but he never arrested anyone. And he never closed any newspaper. That’s why people feel comfortable. Mr. Boediono is a better candidates for Vice President than Jusuf kalla was 5 years ago. Because he has a very clean track record while the two other vice presidential candidates allegedly committed human right violations. Boediono never killed anyone, he cannot even kill a mouse. He is a very gentle person. He had worked on the Indonesian economy for maybe 20 years in various capacities. So he is a credible figure.

Its quite cleared that the political parties which supported SBY were nothing to do with his sucess in 2009 general election.. SBY thought that making strong government still needed support from the political parties allied, that was because of that, he kept strong tie with political parties. This is I then call coalition step one.

The second coalition SBY set the cabinet shared with political parties allied. He then finally decide to post vice minister that come from professional/ cerrier figure to fulfill the weakness point of political figure who sit in the cabinet.

The third coalition was SBY set at the parliament. He meant that by parties coalition he will smoothly gain political support from the house. But that fact is in the contrary..

It learned from our history that coalition in parliament and cabinet have shown very week, not effective and inefficiency as well. Even finally becoming threatened to the position the President position.

Thera are thing that I have to make comment on this. First that SBY cleary he does understand what is the meaning of Presidential System. Indonesia begins 2010 like a ship drifting aimlessly because chaos prevails onboard, with many clamoring to take control but none succeeding. It is a ship waiting for someone credible and trustworthy to take charge and steer it through the rough waters. Now, will the real captain please rise?

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